The Book of Why

The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect by Judea Pearl and Dana Mackenzie argues that correlation is not causation.

Three levels of intelligence:

  1. Seeing – regularities (animals, evolution?)
  2. Doing – predict (e.g. hawk and prey)
  3. Imagining – theory, why! (humans, sometimes)

Current day AI is at level 1 (not even 2). It can’t posit a counter-factual. And it shows that level 1 is already very strong.

Limited Turing test is the goal of Pearl. E.g. have a story and AI to make inferences from parts of it.

Bayesian, priors, causality, billjard balls