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God Is Not Great

God Is Not Great by Christopher Hitchens takes reason to religion. It’s a deep dive into a terribly important topic. Not only because it has shaped (and for the foreseeable future will shape) our lives. Whilst some will argue that we’re already living in the next Enlightenment (or hope so, Steven Pinker), Christopher Hitchens is more militant and political, if we need an Enlightenment, he will be one of the horsemen of it.

Here are some observations I had on the chapters:

  1. Putting it Mildly
    • “There still remains four irreducible objections to religious faith: that it wholly misrepresents the origins of man and the cosmos, that because of this original error it manages to combine the maximum of servility with the maximum of solipsism, that it is both the result and the cause of dangerous sexual repression, and that it is ultimately grounded on wish-thinking.”
    • Religion has been seen as attractive because we’re only partly rational
    • “… those who offer false consolation are false friends”
    • “Religion is man-made” (emphasis is on the man part)
    • “Religion poisons everything”
  2. Religion Kills
    • “It must seek to interfere with the lives of nonbelievers, or heretics, or adherents of other faiths. It may speak about the bliss of the next world, but it wants power in this one”
    • Since 2001 Hitchens sees religion (again) taking a larger role in public life (crazy Americans)
    • Religious wars/attacks between the West and Middle-East are two sides of the same coin (and feed/strengthen each other)
    • “In this respect, religion is not unlike racism. One version of it inspires and provokes the other”
  3. Why Heaven Hates Ham
    • Religion, Jews/Muslims, hate pigs, but why. (The even banned Animal Farm by George Orwell)
    • Pigs are intelligent, share lots of our DNA, you can use almost every part
    • The ban is not rationally (even way back when), archaeology shows that other people ate them without problems (trichinosis)
    • It’s just superstition that should have ended when it started
  4. A Note on Health
    • Smallpox eradication was harmed by false rumours spread by Muslims (see the same happening now in New York with measles, again wtf)
    • The damage from this is incalculable
    • Religions believe that the holy text should be enough to prevent people from doing the bad things (/protect them in a way?), of course, that is not how life works and in many cases, the victims even didn’t do anything morally wrong
    • “The attitude of religion to medicine, like the attitude of religion to science, is always necessarily problematic and very often necessarily hostile”
    • Two major religions in Africa, “believe that the cure is much worse than the disease”
    • Child rape and torture is suspected to be so bad that there are maybe more kids than not (in religious schools) that we molested
    • Three conclusions up to this point:
      1. Religion and the churches are manufactured
      2. Ethics and morality are quite independent of faith, and cannot be derived from it
      3. religion is – because it claims a special divine exemption for its practices and beliefs – not just amoral but immoral
    • Religion actually looks forward to the day that it all ends. This is captured in a guilty joy (schadenfreude). They hope of course that they personally will be spared
  5. The Metaphysical Claims of Religion Are False
    • “Religion comes from the period of human prehistory where nobody had the smallest idea what was going on”
    • Ockham’s razor is one of the thinking tools to show that religion/God is not a good explanation for science
  6. Arguments from Design
    • The paradox at the centre of the large religions concerns both feeling submissive and being rigorous and superior to others
    • The arguments from design concern the small and large. And they are centred not around inquiry but on faith alone (e.g. finding bones of dinosaurs is there to test your faith)
    • The often used example of the eye is very mistaken. It has been developed/’made’ by evolution over 40 times and in us human is quite inefficient (backwards and upside down)
    • Our DNA has lots of ‘junk’ left behind from everything between us and the bacteria we came from
    • A theory (also a word that is mislabelled) becomes accepted when it can make accurate predictions about things or events that have not yet been discovered or have not yet occurred
    • “…98 per cent of all the species that have ever appeared on earth have lapsed into extinction”
    • Evolution is not guided and that we’re here is the result of a lot of luck/bottlenecks
    • Fun fact: “… a cow is closer in family to a whale than to a horse”
    • Hitchens mentions The End of Faith by Sam Harris
  7. Revelation (Old Testament)
    • Again a focus on man and the focus on humans
    • The ten commandments say nothing about the protection of children, slavery, rape, genocide
    • Shortly after that, God tells Moses about when to buy and sell slaves (so, yeah), and the rules for selling daughters
    • “… none of the gruesome, disordered events described in Exodus ever took place”
    • “Freud made the obvious point that religion suffered from one incurable deficiency: it was too clearly derived from our own desire to escape from or survive death”
    • The context of the bible is local! (no mention of Inca’s or other peoples)
  8. The New Testament
    • The four gospels describe the events very differently and there is disagreement on mythical elements (including the crucifixion and resurrection of Jesus)
    • “the word translated as ‘virgin’, namely almah means only ‘a young woman'”
    • Jesus had four brothers and some sisters (Matthew, 13:55-57)
    • (quoting C.S. Lewis, a “most popular Christian apologist”, speaking about Jesus): “Now, unless the speaker is God, this is really so preposterous as to be comic.”
    • “The case for the biblical consistency or authenticity or ‘inspiration’ has been in tatters for some time, and the rents and tears only become more obvious with better research, and thus no ‘revelation’ can be derived from that quarter. So, then, let the advocates and partisans of religion rely on faith alone, and let them be brave enough to admit that this is what they are doing.”
  9. The Koran
    • “… relates facts about extremely tedious local quarrels.”
    • The Koran can only be read as the original and translations are not as true as the original revealed text
    • “There has never been an attempt in any age to challenge or even investigate the claims of Islam that has not been met with extremely harsh and swift repression.”
    • Almost as soon as it was established, after Muhammad died, quarrels over leadership erupted and started the Sunni and Shia divide.
    • Two quotes (as a rebuttal to Islam’s benign tolerance): “Nobody who dies and finds good from Allah (in the hereafter) would wish to come back to this world even if he were given the whole world and whatever is in it, except the martyr who, on seeing the superiority of martyrdom, would like to come back to the world and be killed again.” and “God will not forgive those who serve other gods beside Him; but he will forgive whom He will for other sins. He that serves other gods besides God is guilty of a heinous sin.”
  10. The Tawdriness of the Miraculous
    • “… the age of miracles seems to lie somewhere in our past.”
    • And this could be welcomed but faith is apparently not enough on its own and we get some very strange attempts at describing miracles (which of course are then being discredited).
    • Houdini and others have shown us in many ways that miracles are smart ways of showing things that comply with the laws of nature.
    • “Miracles, in any case, do not vindicate the truth of the religion that practices them.”
    • Many people believe in miracle cures and therefore don’t undergo normal treatment.
    • “… many people will die needlessly as a result of this phoney and contemptible ‘miracle’.”
    • “The evidence (miracles) for faith, then, seems to leave faith looking even weaker than it would if it stood, alone and unsupported, all by itself.”
    • We have many other things to wonder about, the atom, quarks, black holes, morning sun in spring, etc.
  11. Religion’s Corrupt Beginnings
    • Here Hitchens takes a closer look at the origin of religion, for this he uses cargo cults and the Mormons as examples from last/this century.
    • “Is it not true that all religions down the ages have shown a keen interest in the amassment of material goods in the real world?”
    • American evangelism is a heartless con run by no good men (also see Derren Brown – Miracles for Sale)
    • “… twenty-five thousand words of the Book of Mormon are taken directly from the Old Testament.” (2000 new testament)
    • What if religion is the outcome of believing in believing, having faith, which in ancient time was equal to higher morale and thus higher chances of surviving?
  12. How Religion Ends
    • A short chapter on religions that are no longer here, how did they stop (not a clear/actionable reason, except no real following/end of world event didn’t happen).
  13. Does Religion Make People Behave Better
    • Religion is often equated to morality, to learning how to live a good life.
    • But being a moral person and being religious doesn’t go hand in hand, in many cases, the very ‘holy’ people are the same who abuse kids. And there are great atheists (even before our mainstream religions existed) that did great moral things.
    • The slave trade was blessed by the church (and Islam), “the most devout Christians made the most savage slaveholders.”
    • “No supernatural force was required to make the case against racism.”
    • “… there is no country in the world today where slavery is still practised where the justification of it is not derived from the Koran.”
    • The emancipation is also one where religion was holding it back instead of helping, and yes that is referring to the backward beliefs of Gandhi
    • “When priests go bad, they go very bad indeed, and commit crimes that would make the average sinner pale. One might prefer to attribute this to sexual repression than to the actual doctrines preached, but then one of the actual doctrines preached is sexual repression…”
    • The church has also been bad at saying sorry for the sins of the past and has lacked in denouncing people who do bad acts in the name of faith.
  14. There Is No “Eastern” Solution
    • Even in the east, you are not safe. Here gurus go after the possessions of famous/rich/average people, engage in orgies and strive for power, just like everywhere else.
    • Even the Hindu and Buddhists have a history of murderers and violence.
    • The best example is the Buddhists who raped China in honour of Japan.
  15. Religion as an Original Sin
    • “There are indeed several ways in which religion is not just amoral, but positively immoral.”
    • “These include: presenting a false picture of the world to the innocent and the credulous, the doctrine of blood sacrifice, atonement, eternal reward and/or punishment, the imposition of impossible tasks and rules
    • “The essential principle of totalitarianism is to make laws that are impossible to obey” (in regard to being responsible for sins from before your time).”
    • “… a spiritual police state.”
  16. Is Religion Child Abuse?
    • “… religion has always hoped to practice upon the unformed and undefended minds of the young…”
    • “… to keep the ignorant in a state of permanent fear.”
    • “The only proposition that is completely useless, either morally or practically, is the wild statement that sperms and eggs are all potential lives which must not be prevented from fusing and that, when united however briefly, have souls and must be protected by law.”
    • “Mother Theresa denounced contraception as the moral equivalent of abortion…”
    • “… it is hard to imagine anything more grotesque than the mutilation of infant genitalia (both sexes, multiple religions). Nor is it easy to imagine anything more incompatible with the argument from design.”
    • “… we are talking about the systematic rape and torture of children, positively aided and abetted by a hierarchy which knowingly moved the grossest offenders to parishes where they would be safer.”
  17. An Objection Anticipated
    • (short summary of points made before) “… usefulness of religion is in the past, and that its foundational books are transparent fables, and that it is man-made imposition, and that it has been an enemy of science and inquiry, and that it has subsisted largely on lies and fears, and been the accomplice of ignorance and guilt as well as of slavery, genocide, racism, and tyranny…”
    • Religion was bad but were there not terrible atheists like Hitler and Stalin. Alas, religion went to bed with them and were quite the supporters.
    • “The very first diplomatic accord undertaken by Hitler’s government… a treaty with the Vatican.”
    • In the case of communism, it was there not to fight religion, it was there to replace it.
  18. A Finer Tradition
    • Unbelief has been around as long as belief (see the trail of Socrates)
    • “Human decency is not derived from religion. It precedes it.”
    • What if we imagined a world where religion didn’t get a hold of the whole world so early on, what if in evolution it had died out, what a world we would have lived in!
  19. In Conclusion (The Need for a New Enlightenment)
    • “… it is better and healthier for the mind to “choose” the path of scepticism and inquiry in any case…”
    • “… we are in need of a renewed Enlightenment, which will base itself on the proposition that the proper study of mankind is man and woman.”

I found this to quite the enlightening read and although I don’t think religion and discussion around it will occupy much of my mind-space, I think this is a good introduction to the sins of religion and has given me a better understanding of the space.

How to Get People to Do Stuff

How to Get People to Do Stuff by Susan Weinschenk can be seen as a guide to actionable psychology/behavioural economics. The book is full of tips and trick on how to get people to take action. It’s quite high-level but does reference good sources (e.g. research by Daniel Kahneman). Here are the sections:

  1. The Need to Belong
  2. Habits
  3. The Power of Stories
  4. Carrots and Sticks
  5. Instincs
  6. The Desire for Mastery
  7. Tricks of the Mind

I skimmed through quite some parts (and did look at the strategies) and now have 9 actionables to do for Queal.

Public Commitment 2019 – Update 1

This year my theme is Connection. And for this, I’ve started laying the groundwork. Just like in the second half of 2018, I’ve been keeping up my updates on the Timeline.

One big thing I’ve done is to follow a course on ‘The Molecular Mechanisms of Ageing‘. The course was quite detailed and I’ve learned some more fundamentals of ageing. I hope to use this knowledge further in a later part of this year.

I’ve also followed a course on JavaScript from Codeacademy. The course was quite enlightening, now I should/will start using it (and future courses on PHP and other tools) to upgrade my website, workflows (e.g. toggl-google calendar link), and Queal Dashboard/website.

One other actionable was to start using more ‘book’ knowledge in real-life and at Queal, we’ve been implementing two books into our routines. One about Building a Storybrand, and the other about usability testing (Rocket Surgery Made Easy).

Here is my analysis of the goals and various updates:

Goal 1: Make this website a true personal knowledge hub

I’ve added almost all of my back-catalogue from before moving the website over. I’ve also done the same from another wiki-like system I used. Of course, I haven’t yet written all the blogs/reviews I wanted to write.

The goal stays the same and in the coming quarter, I hope to improve search and continue to add new things to the Timeline, reviews, etc. Maybe I will write a long essay, but no guarantees.

Goal 2: Eat good meals that support my well-being 90% of the time

Yes and no. For most meals I eat at home, I’ve made them myself and have put some effort into it. I do see that I eat quite a lot and that includes quite some yoghurt with toppings at work.

I will keep being conscious of this and with Lotte moving in, I think my food will be very good. I might even bring some more to the office (and have some variety next to 2-3 meals of Queal per day).

Goal 3: Keep on improving my house

Yes. I’ve done quite a lot since last writing here. The bathroom is finished (for which I only did the door and painting). I take a bath about once a week and of course it’s very convenient to have a toilet upstairs.

Next to that, Lotte is moving in soon (in a few days of writing this draft, and on the day of publishing) so we’ve been making the house even cooler in the meantime.

The plants have multiplied, we’ve painted some walls, there is a new couch, new bookshelves/library, etc. I like how everything looks and Lotte will take some time to sort out her things.

One other addition is ‘Anne’, the robot vacuum (from iRobot) and he is working quite well. Today I put away all cables he was messing up, so he should be all good to go.

Goal 4: Achieve my fitness goals

The last few weeks I’ve been following my own new plan and that is going very well. I don’t know yet what I can do best in terms of weight-loss versus muscle-gain, but everything looks good for now.

I’m still learning the Snatch and better my Clean & Jerk. I haven’t measured my max yet (will do so in about 7 weeks) and who knows I will be a bit closer to the 90kg.

Goal 5: Write Spero

No. I have this on my daily checklist. Who knows if I will be able to incorporate this in my routine somewhere in the coming months.

Alright that is it for now. I don’t have any new goals at the moment, let’s just be happy with the ones I have and there is enough to be done already.

We Are Legion

“Bob Johansson has just sold his software company and is looking forward to a life of leisure. There are places to go, books to read, and movies to watch. So it’s a little unfair when he gets himself killed crossing the street.

Bob wakes up a century later to find that corpsicles have been declared to be without rights, and he is now the property of the state. He has been uploaded into computer hardware and is slated to be the controlling AI in an interstellar probe looking for habitable planets. The stakes are high: no less than the first claim to entire worlds. If he declines the honor, he’ll be switched off, and they’ll try again with someone else. If he accepts, he becomes a prime target. There are at least three other countries trying to get their own probes launched first, and they play dirty. 

The safest place for Bob is in space, heading away from Earth at top speed. Or so he thinks. Because the universe is full of nasties, and trespassers make them mad – very mad.”

This was a fun story and makes me wonder about the second and third book in the ‘bobiverse‘. I do however think that the story structure was different from what I expected so let’s take a look:

Hmm I do realise that there is a short storyloop at the beginning:

You: Bob, sold his company, etc

Need: to live, and well, you’ve been hit by a bus

Go: you are an AI and you need to figure out how this works

Search: learn to work with the tools you have. Learn more about the world

Find (with the help of a guide): learns how to protect himself, use his new abilities

Take: has to leave the world, and leave all his connections to the world behind

Return: finds his humanity again in VR etc (and returns to Earth to save it later)

Change: he is the new Bob (and Bill, Homer, etc)

You: Bob, AI, cruising through space

Need: to survive from other AIs humans made (but a lot of new goals and subplots are introduced later, and there I think the story might be less good, but also interesting, hmm)

Go: on the way to new resources in other solar systems

Search: energy, place to be safe, make copies, learn skills

Find (with the help of a guide): arrives in other solar system(s), has new skills, improves, finds way to save humanity (after a while at least) (hmm, not really a guide here except from some old knowledge of tv series etc, and some quotes from The Art of War)

Take: not all Bobs survive, humanity? (but not really, because you don’t really care about that too much) (I guess there could/should have been more sacrifice?)

Return: populates the universe, goes back to Earth

Change: he is the new Bob (and Bill, Homer, etc)

I guess another problem I had with the story structure was the lack of closed loops. The threat of the Brazilian probe is still there, there is another type of intelligent civilisation out there (that took the metal out of one system and left some bots there), the humanoids on another planet (and the gorilla’s etc they have to survive from), etc.

AI x Future

On Wednesday 13rd of March 2019, the EA Rotterdam group had their seventh reading & discussion group. This is a deeper dive into some of the EA topics.

The topic for this event was AI x Future: Prosperity or destruction?

During the evening we discussed how artificial intelligence (AI) could lead to a wide range of possible futures. First we gave a presentation about the field (and what it’s future might bring). After that, we split the group in 3 parts and discussed the possible positive and negative outcomes.

Although we gave the instruction of thinking about only one side, of course all 3 groups also considered the opposite point of view from what they had to argue. Here are the questions, presentations, and my personal summary of the night.

We (the organisers of EA Rotterdam) thank Alex from V2_ (our venue for the night) for hosting us, and Jan (also from V2_) for being our AI expert for the evening.

If you want to visit an EA Rotterdam event, visit our Meetup page.

Questions

These were our starting questions:

Bright Lights

  • What could AI do for you personally (if AI did/solved X, I could now Y)?
  • What could be the effect of AI on energy production? Could AI help prevent/solve/reverse climate change?
  • What effect could AI have if fully implemented in health research (protein folding, cancer research, Alzheimer’s)?
  • Could AI help us produce the food we need with fewer resources (new crops, cultured meat, fewer pesticides, etc)?
  • How would mobility change with self-driving cars, trucks, buses, planes?
  • Could we prevent crime from happening (e.g. intelligent camera’s, prediction algorithms)?
  • Can AI actually improve our privacy?
  • Can we work together with AI to create more together (e.g. chess teams a few years back, a doctor working with AI image system)?
  • Will AI make wars obsolete? Or when they happen, more humane?
  • Could AI fight loneliness (e.g. robots in nursing homes)?
  • Could AI help us learn and remember better (e.g. a ‘smarter’ Duolingo)?
  • Will AI be conscious? If yes, could it ‘experience’ unlimited amounts of happiness?

Dark Despair

  • Will there be any jobs for us to do in the (near/long-term) future? What can’t AI do?
  • Who will enjoy the economic benefits from AI (Google/Facebook shareholders)? Will life become even more unequal than ever before in history?
  • Could someone hack the autonomous cars of the future?
  • Will we live in a totalitarian (China/Minority Report) state enabled by AI?
  • Does AI mean the end of privacy (everything tracked and analysed)?
  • Will AI enable more gruesome warfare (more weapons, no-one at the button)?
  • Will we lose contact with each other / lose our humanity (e.g. robots in nursing homes, chatbots (in Japan))?
  • What if the goals of the AI don’t align with our (humanity) goals? Can we still turn it off? How could we even align these goals – philosophy hasn’t really figured this one out yet!?
  • Will AI be conscious? If no, will there still be humans to ‘experience’ the future?

Bonus:

  • What are some concrete (future) examples of AI destroying the world?
  • Can you think of some counter-arguments for the points you expect the other group to raise?
  • Write down the date your group thinks AGI will happen? (don’t show the other team)

AI x Future

We started the evening with a presentation by Christiaan and Floris (me). In it, we explained both Effective Altruism (EA) and how (through this framework) we look at AI.

Download the presentation

After that, we split the group into two and both groups worked on making a mindmap/overview of the questions asked above (download them). This is a summary of both sides:

Group 1&2 – Dark Despair

These are the two posters from the Dark Despair groups:

Privacy

In a world with AGI, it could possibly track everything you do. The data that is is disparate systems could be combined and acted upon (not in your interest). Think 1984. You won’t be able to hide, your face will be detected.

Totalitarian State

This leads right into the second point of despair, a totalitarian state. One where big brother is always watching. The EU is making a case for privacy and human rights, can they withstand AGI?

Censorship, like that in China already this day, could lead to total control of the population. You might not be able to leave (e.g. if you’re social credits are too low).

War

Killer bees, but this time for real (or well, artificial, with tiny bombs). It is already real and warfare can become more dangerous and one-sided with an AGI on one side of the battle. Who presses the button? And are the goals of the AGI the same ones as ours?

And what if this makes war cheaper? Instead of training a soldier for years at millions of costs, just fly in some (small) drones that control themselves. Heck, what if they can repair themselves?

Will there be any empathy left in war? If you’re not there, why see the other side as a real human?

Jobs

Will there be any jobs left? A(G)I might leave us without mundane and repetitive tasks (a positive in most cases), but what about creative jobs, jobs that need empathy and give you meaning? Some say that A(narrow)I of today is already taking jobs here (e.g. Woebot).

And for who would we be working? Will it be to better humanity or for furthering the goals of the AGI (which might not align with ours).

Social Media

Looking closer at home, learning algorithms (ANI) are already influencing our lives and optimising our time on social networks, making us hunker for likes, hearts, approval. What if Facebook (social media), Amazon (buy this now, watch Twitch), Google (watch Youtube), Netflix, etc. become even better at this? Will we be the fat people from Wall-E?

Economic Inequality

And whilst we’re binge-watching some awesome new series, the AGI is hacking away at tax evasion (which some people are already good at, image the possibilities for an AGI).

Where will the benefits go? Do they go to society (like now via taxes and positive externalities) or will companies (and their executives) rake in all the benefits? With more and more data, who will benefit? How will the benefits ‘trickle-down’?

Autonomous Vehicles

In many US states, truck driver is the single largest job category. What if this disappears? What if the cars get hacked? Who is responsible when an accident happens (which is, of course, less likely, but hey we’re not the positive team here). (more on Self-Driving Cars at WIRED).

Consciousness

Consciousness and intelligence don’t go hand in hand. Will AGI enjoy art, music, or anything at all? And (surprising to me), we asked, are humans becoming less conscious?

AGI vs AGI

What if you take the time to program the safety into your AGI, and then the other team (read: country) doesn’t and their AGI becomes more intelligent faster, but doesn’t share our goals? Guess who ‘wins’.

Group 3 – Bright Lights (AI-YAY!)

This is the poster from the Bright Lights group.

Anti-War

AGI could find better compromises and mutual interests. If you could plan scenarios better (show losses from war, have shorter wars, show benefits from cooperating, etc). We pesky humans tend to be quite negative, what if AGI could show us that war is not needed to achieve our goals?

War is, a lot of times, about resources. But with AGI we should have abundant resources, so no more war? (to read more about war, check out my summary of Better Angels of Our Nature by Steven Pinker).

Health/Medicine

With better data analysis, we can make better predictions and make better medicine. We can see the unpredicted/unknown and intervene before it’s too late.

We can help people who are addicted to prevent relapse. Data from cheap trackers could help someone stay clean. It could even detect bad patterns and help people before things get too bad.

If we understand how proteins fold (and we’re getting better at it, AlphaFold), we might cure every disease we know. The possibilities of AGI and health are endless and exciting.

Mental Health

A chat-bot could keep you company. If we have more old people (before we make them fit again), an AGI could be their companion.

Chat to your AGI and ditch the therapist. Get coaching and live your best life. Not only for people who have access to both right now. No, therapy and coaching for everyone in the world.

Personal

AGI could help you with making life decisions (think dating simulation in Black Mirror). Choose the very best career for your happiness/fulfilment. Should you have children? Dating, NO MORE DRAMA!

Have your AGI tell you the weather. Have it be your personal yoga teacher, your basketball coach. Let it take away boring work, save you time, and let you live your best life.

Conclusion

Two hours isn’t enough to tackle AI and our possible future. But I do hope that we’ve been able to inspire everyone who was there, and all you reading this, of what the possible future’s there are.

“May we live in interesting times” is a quote I find very appropriate for this topic. It can go many ways (and is doing that already). If, and when, we will have AGI, we will see. Until then, I hope to see you at our next Meetup.

Resources

Videos

Nick Bostrom – What happens when our computers get smarter than we are?

Max Tegmark – How to get empowered, not overpowered, by AI

Grady Booch – Don’t fear superintelligent AI

Shyam Sankar – The rise of human-computer cooperation

Anthony Goldboom – The jobs we’ll lose to machines — and the ones we won’t (4 min)

Two Minute Papers – How Does Deep Learning Work?

Crash Course – Machine Learning & Artificial Intelligence

Computerphile – Artificial Intelligence with Rob Miles (13 episodes)

Books

Superintelligence – Nick Bostrom (examining the risks)

Life 3.0 – Max Tegmark (optimistic)

The Master Algorithm – Pedro Domingos (explanation of learning algorithms)

The Singularity Is Near – Ray Kurzweil (very optimistic)

Humans Need Not Apply – Jerry Kaplan (good intro, conversational)

Our Final Invention – James Barrat (negative effects)

Isaac Asimov’s Robot Series (fiction 1940-1950, loads of fun!)

TV Shows

Person of Interest (good considerations)

Black Mirror (episodic, dark side of technology)

Westworld (AI as humanoid robots)

Movies

Ex Machina (AI as humanoid robot)

Blade Runner (cult classic, who/what is humam?)

Eagle Eye (omnipresent AI system)

Her (AI and human connection)

2001: A Space Odyssey (1986, AI ship computer)

Research/Articles

Effective Altruism Foundation on Artificial Intelligence Opportunities and Risks

https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/positively-shaping-artificial-intelligence/

80000 hours Problem Profile of Artificial Intelligence

https://80000hours.org/topic/priority-paths/ai-policy/

80000 hours on AI policy (also has great podcasts)

Great, and long-but-worth-it, article on The AI Revolution

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2018/12/21/18126576/ai-artificial-intelligence-machine-learning-safety-alignment

Future Perfect (Vox) article on AI safety alignment

https://cs.nyu.edu/faculty/davise/papers/Bostrom.pdf

Ernest Davis on Ethical Guidelines for a Superintelligence

https://intelligence.org/files/PredictingAI.pdf

On how we’re bad at prediction when AGI will happen

https://intelligence.org/files/ResponsesAGIRisk.pdf

Responses to Catastrophic AGI Risk

https://kk.org/thetechnium/thinkism/

Kevin Kelly on Thinkism, why the Singularity (/AGI) won’t happen soon

dhttps://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/

Deep Mind (Google/Alphabet) on Alphafold (protein folding)

Meetup:

Effective Altruism Rotterdam

Rotterdam, NL
482 Effective Altruists

Effective altruism is about answering one simple question: how can we use our resources to help others the most?

Next Meetup

Social & Introductory Effective Altruism Meetup Rotterdam

Wednesday, Jun 12, 2019, 7:00 PM
5 Attending

Check out this Meetup Group →

https://earotterdam.nl/

Awesome newsletter (recommended by an attendee):

http://www.exponentialview.co/

Download the full resource list

Turning the Flywheel

Well, not actually a book, a monograph. One that accompanies Good to Great. Turning the Flywheel by Jim Collins goes deeper into the concept of the flywheel. Below I will define the flywheel and give two interpretations of it, for Queal and for myself.

Flywheel

The Flywheel effect is a concept developed in the book Good to Great. No matter how dramatic the end result, good-to-great transformations never happen in one fell swoop. In building a great company or social sector enterprise, there is no single defining action, no grand program, no one killer innovation, no solitary lucky break, no miracle moment. Rather, the process resembles relentlessly pushing a giant, heavy flywheel, turn upon turn, building momentum until a point of breakthrough, and beyond.

7 steps to capturing your own flywheel:
1. Create a list of significant replicable successes your enterprise has achieved.
2. Compile a list of failures and disappointments.
3. Compare the successes to the disappointments and ask, “What do these successes and disappointments tell us about the possible components of our flywheel?”
4. Using the components you’ve identified (keeping it to four to six), sketch the flywheel.
5. If you have more than six components, you’re making it too complicated; consolidate and simplify to capture the essence of the flywheel.
6. Test the flywheel against your list of successes and disappointments.
7. Test the flywheel against the three circles of your Hedgehog Concept

Queal

  • Create a complete meal
  • Deliver the best meal experience for quick moments
    • E.g. good shaker, dashboard, ordering process, etc.
  • Build strong customer loyalty
  • Grow through WOM
  • Have margins to improve –> (repeat)

Personal

  • Learn diverse fields of information
  • Explore learnings in one specific area
  • Build business out of knowledge
  • Automate business –> (repeat)

The Gods Themselves

The Gods Themselves by Isaac Asimov consists of three consecutive stories. I like that he started this book as an explanation why plutonium 186 can exists (it can’t, but a friend of his mentioned it and he decided he could write a story about it).

I liked the book and it was an interesting listen. As always it’s very interesting to see what happens when communication breaks down between places (the Moon-Earth, Earth-Panuniverse).

As before, here is the analysis of the story-structure, this time with a guide part added (based on Building a StoryBrand).

You: people on Earth in about the year 2100ish. Or, para-people

Need: energy, after ecologic and economic collapse. Also need energy.

Go: ?. Explain why, what has happened (sun low energy).

Search: have to find new energy source. ditto

Find (with the help of a guide): plutonium 186 from para-men. Way to get energy from other universe (pump), guide is themselves as parentals.

Take: energy imbalance, possibility of world ending, losing position (Lamont). Other universe will die if they continue.

Return: tried to warn everyone. Wants to fix it (but doesn’t really do this).

Change: find new solution, kinda. Finds out they are parental themselves.

Ubik

Ubik by Philip K. Dick is one of his most acclaimed novels. Whilst listening to the book I did understand this in the beginning. But as the story drags on, I lost a bit of interest and wondered if I missed something significant.

“By the year 1992, humanity has colonized the Moon and psychic powers are common. The protagonist, Joe Chip, is a debt-ridden technician working for Runciter Associates, a “prudence organization” employing “inertials“—people with the ability to negate the powers of telepaths and “precogs”—to enforce the privacy of clients. The company is run by Glen Runciter, assisted by his deceased wife Ella who is kept in a state of “half-life”, a form of cryonic suspension that allows the deceased limited consciousness and ability to communicate. While consulting with Ella, Runciter discovers that her consciousness is being invaded by another half-lifer, Jory Miller.” (wiki)

Interpretations of the book say that Ubik might be about God, or Good and Evil. Hmm, not my cuppa.

Ubik is a science fiction novel written by Philip K. Dick. It follows the story of Joe Chip, a technician at Runciter Associates. When an explosion kills Joe Chip’s boss, Glen Runciter, strange things begin to happen. Soon Joe realizes his boss did not die in the explosion, but he is in a state of half-life. If he wants to stay that way, he has to keep the evil Jory from eating his life energy.

Building a Storybrand

These are my detailed notes of the great marketing/storytelling book, Building a Storybrand by Donald Miller.

Section 1: Why most marketing is a money pit

  • the key to being seen, heard, and understood
  • the secret weapon that will grow your business
  • the simple SB7 framework

Section 2: Building your storybrand

  • a character
  • has a problem
  • and meets a guide
  • who gives them a plan
  • and calls them to action
  • that helps them avoid failure
  • and ends in a success
  • people want your brand to participate in their transformation

Section 3: Implementing your storybrand brandscript

  • building a better website
  • using storybrand to transform company culture

Introduction

  • Customers don’t care about your story, customers care about their own story!

Chapter 1: The Key to Being Seen, Heard, and Understood

  • Pretty website don’t sell things, words sell things.
  • We aren’t just in a race to get products to market, we’re also in a race to communicate why our customers need those products in their lives.
  • The more simple and predictable the communication, the easier it is for the brain to digest. Story helps because it’s a sense-making mechanism.
  • Mistake 1: Brands don’t focus on aspect of their offer that will help people survive and thrive.
    • Focus on what is evolutionary important
    • Example: we know the exits in a room, not the number of chairs
    • Tell a story about the ‘exits’ not the number of chairs
  • Mistake 2: Brands cause their customer to burn too many calories in an effort to understand the message.
    • If there is too much (useless/non-essential) information, people ignore the brand
    • The key is to make your company’s message about something that helps the customer survive and to do so in a way that they can understand without burning many calories
  • Stories have a necessary ambition, defines a challenge, provides a plan to conquer challenges.
  • This creates a map customers can follow to engage with our products and services.
  • The formula for movies is the same as will be explained (StoryBrand Framework).
  • The key is clarity (if you confuse you lose).
  • Identify: What customers want, what problem we help solve, what life will look like after using product/service.
  • Noise is the enemy of a business. Clutter that is generated by the business itself. 
  • It was as though he was answering a hundred questions his customers had never asked.
  • What we think we’re saying to our customers, and what our customers actually hear are two different things. Customers make decisions based on the latter.
  • The key good writing is what you don’t say.

Chapter 2: The Secret Weapon That Will Grow Your Business

  • A story is your way to combat/break through the noise.
  • Example: Music and noise are very similar, but the structure of music makes it memorable.
  • The essence of branding is to create simple, relevant messages we can repeat over and over so that we “brand” ourselves into the public consciousness.
  • Example: Lisa computer from Apple, 9 pages (boooring) technical. Later, 2 words (think different). It’s about you.
  • People buy the products they can understand the fastest.
  • Story in a nutshell:
    • character who wants something encounters a problem, before they can get it. At the peak of their despair, a guide steps into their lives, gives them a plan, and calls them to action. That actions helps them avoid failure and ens in a success.
  • Examples: stories of Hunger Games, Star Wars
  • Truly creative and brilliant marketers and screenwriters know how to use the formula while still avoiding cliché.
  • The three crucial questions (movie):
    1. What does the hero want?
    2. Who or what is opposing the hero getting what she wants?
    3. What will the hero’s life look like if she does (or doesn’t) get what she wants?
  • Anything that doesn’t serve the plot has to go.
  • The three crucial questions (brand/website/marketing-material)
    1. What do you offer?
    2. How will it make my life better?
    3. What do I need to do to buy it?
  • Could a caveman look at your website and immediately grunt/get what you offer?
  • Example: online camera course, removed jargon and fluff (90% of text), focus on questions above (x5 revenue).
  • A good filter removes all the stuff that bores our customers and will bear down on the aspects of the brand that will help them survive and thrive.

Chapter 3: The Simple SB7 Framework

  • Principles:
    1. The customer is the hero, not your brand
      • you are the guide (Yoda)
      • hero wants something
    2. Companies sell solutions to external problems, but customers buy solutions to internal problems
      • they want to solve a problem that has disrupted their peaceful life
      • Queal: Time has disappeared? or not eating right anymore, (can’t find the time for it)
      • Example: lawn not tidy, pension not fixed
      • problems are, external, internal (best response), philosophical
    3. Customers aren’t looking for another hero; customers are looking for a guide
      • brands that position themselves as a hero, unknowingly compete with their potential customers
    4. Customers trust a guide who has a plan
      • remove confusion about how to do business/take next step
      • agreement and process plan
    5. Customers do not take action unless they are challenged to take action
      • Seth Godin: create tension (and/or step 6 too)
      • there needs to be a reason
      • characters only take action after they are challenged by an outside force
      • A call to action involves communicating a clear and direct step our customers can take to overcome their challenge and return to a peaceful life.
      • direct or transitional
    6. Every human being is trying to avoid a tragic ending
      • what’s at stake/what happens if you don’t take action
      • show the cost of not doing business
      • brands that help customers avoid some kind of negativity in life, engage customers (they define what’s at stake)
      • use this strategically (like salt, so not too much or none at all)
    7. Never assume people understand how your brand can change their lives. Tell them
      • if we don’t tell people where we’re taking them, they will choose another brand
      • offer a vision
  • mystorybrand.com (use tool to fill in)

Chapter 4: A Character

  • The customer is the hero, not the brand.
  • Define the character’s ambition / define what your customer wants.
  • Can this brand really help me get what I want?
  • Example: luxury resort changed from pictures about themselves, to focus on luxury for customers.
  • Example: a hassle-free MBA you can complete after work.
  • Identify what customer wants, gives definition and direction.
  • Identify a potential desire, this opens a story gap.
  • Example: Jason Bourne has amnesia (Wie ben ik godverdomme…)
  • Finding out what customers want, opens the story gap.
  • Pair that desire down to a single focus.
  • Don’t clutter the story by giving the hero (customer) too many ambitions.
    • Only after the general story, you might want to define subplots
  • What you define should be related to the customer’s sense of survival.
  • Survival: primitive desire to be safe, healthy, happy, strong.
    • Conserving financial resources (Walmart)
    • Conserving time (Queal, cleaning service)
    • Building social networks (working at Coolblue? Facebook)
    • Gaining status (Rolex)
    • Accumulating resources (Vanguard, many B2B offers)
    • The innate desire to be generous (EA, vrijwilligers organisaties)
    • The desire for meaning (ditto, Tony?)
    • You can tap into multiple motivations of course
  • The goal for branding should be that every potential customer knows exactly where we want to take them.

Chapter 5: Has a Problem

  • Companies sell solutions to an external problem, customers buy solutions to internal problems.
  • The problem is the hook of a story.
  • The more we talk about the problems our customers experience, the more interest they will have in our brand.
  • You need a villain, and it doesn’t have to be a person, but needs personified characteristics.
  • Example: Time management software, villain is distractions.
  • Villain characteristics:
    1. Root source (time-monster?)
    2. Relate-able 
    3. Singular
    4. Real
  • Three levels of problems.
    1. External problems
      • real-life/physical barrier between hero and desire for stability
      • Example: ticking time-bomb, restaurant solves external hunger problem
    2. Internal problems
      • The purpose of an external problem is to manifest an internal problem.
      • Movies: Do I have what it takes? (emotions, internal frustration to solve)
      • Example: Apple, internal frustration of intimidated by technology
      • Queal: can’t eat right within time/life constraints?
      • Example: car rental company, frustration of talking to people, automatic check-in
      • Example: second-hand car sales, not focus on external (need new cheapish car), focus on internal (don’t want to be hussled) (no commissions, clear terms)
      • Example: Starbucks, deeper sense of feeling well/sophisticated/cool, etc. (ohh and they have ok/good coffee)
    3. Philosophical problems
      • Why does this matter? (in the grand scheme of things)
      • What ought or shouldn’t happen?
      • Example: King’s Speech, external (speech), internal (self-doubt), phil. (good vs evil)
      • Give customers a deeper sense of meaning
  • Frame the ‘buy now’ button as the action a customer must take to create closure in their story.
  • Example: Tesla
    • Villain: Gas guzzling, inferior tech
    • External: I need (want) a car
    • Internal: I want to be an early adopter of new tech
    • Philosophical: My choice of car ought to help save the environment

Chapter 6: And Meets a Guide

  • Customers aren’t looking for another hero; customers are looking for a guide.
  • If a hero solves her own problem in a story, the audience will tune out.
  • A brand that positions itself as a hero is destined to lose.
  • The day we stop losing sleep over the success of our business and start losing sleep over the success of our customers is the day our business will start growing again.
  • In stories, the hero is never the strongest character.
    • The guide has been there, done that.
    • The guide is the one with the most authority.
    • The guide is not the centre, he simply plays a role.
  • Those who realise the epic story of life is not about them but actually about the people around them somehow win in the end.
  • Empathy
    • “I feel your pain”
    • Understanding the struggle the customer has.
    • Make sure that you tell customers you care!
    • Show that you have something in common with the customer.
  • Authority / Competence
    • Customer wants to check off box in back of mind, give confidence in your ability that you can help them.
    • Do it (indirectly) via:
      • Testimonials: Let others do the talking for you. (3 testimonials)
      • Statistics: left-brain, emotional-number (link to benefit)
      • Awards: awards your company has won
      • Logos: B2B, other businesses you’ve worked with, B2C news-outlets
  • “Can I trust this person?” (empathy) / “Can I respect this person?” (competence)

Chapter 7: Who Gives Them a Plan

  • Customers trust a guide who has a plan.
  • Commitment (buying) is risky for customer, he can lose something.
  • What if it doesn’t work? What if I’m a fool for buying this?
  • Remove much of the risk, increase their comfort level.
  • This is the plan.
    1. Create clarity
    2. Remove sense of risk
  • The plan tightens the focus of the movie and gives the hero a ‘path of hope’ she can walk that might lead to the resolution of her troubles.
  • What do you want me (the customer) to do now?
  • The fact that we want them to place an order is not enough information to motivate them.
  • process plan describes the steps a customer needs to take to a) buy our products, and/or b) use the product after they have bought it.
    • A plan alleviates confusion for our customers.
    • The amount of steps in a plan should be at least 3 – max 6.
  • agreement plan is about alleviating fears.
    • When you do business with us, we agree to ABC.
    • This clarifies shared values between customers and us.
    • Agreement plan usually works in the background.
  • Give your plan a name.
    • “easy installation plan”
    • “your morning plan”, “you good mornings plan/meals”
    • Titling your plan will frame it in the customer’s mind and increases the perceived value of all that your brand offers.

Chapter 8: And Calls Them to Action

  • Customers don’t take action unless they are challenged to take action.
  • Ask them to place an order.
  • Heroes/customers need to be challenged by outside forces (to take action).
  • One of the biggest hindrances to business success is that we think customers can read our minds.
  • Repeat the ‘buy now’ button throughout the website (make it very obvious how to take action).
    • E.g. Storybrand website has a ‘register now’ button
  • Off all customers they worked with, none had too many calls to action (overselling is not an issue)
  • When we try to sell passively, we communicate a lack of belief in our product.
  • The guide must be direct with the hero about what they want them to do.
  1. Direct call to action (buy now, make appointment)
  2. Transitional call to action (download pdf, webinar, usually free)
    1. Stake a claim to your territory (show that you’re the leader in the industry)
    2. Create reciprocity (give away free info)
    3. Position yourself as the guide
    • Examples: Free information, Testimonials, Samples, Free trail
  • Those who ask again and again (I guess without being a pain in the butt), shall finally receive
  • Again: There should be one obvious button to press on your website, and it should be a direct call to action.
  • Queal: Order Now in menu?!

Chapter 9: That Helps Them Avoid Failure

  • Every human being is trying to avoid a tragic ending.
  • Answer the ‘so what’ question, what fails if they don’t buy the products.
  • Example: Allstate, foreshadow potential failure for customers, sell insurance to prevent it, opening and closing story loop.
  • What will the customer lose if they don’t buy our products?
    • This is not fear-mongering, this is introducing a stake.
  • People are motivated by loss aversion.
    • See Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman)
  • From another book (quoted)
    1. Show that reader is vulnerable to a threat (30% of homes have termites)
    2. Take action to reduce vulnerability (nobody wants that, do something to protect your home)
    3. Specific call to action to protect them (we offer home treatment to insure you don’t have termites anymore)
    4. Challenge people to take the action (call us today and schedule home treatment)
  • Use fear like salt, just a pinch
  • What negative consequences are you helping your customer avoid?

Chapter 10: And Ends in a Success

  • Never assume people understand how your brand can change their lives. Tell them!
  • “People want to be taken somewhere”
  • “A compelling image of an achievable future”
  • Without a vision, your brand will perish.
  • The resolution must be clearly defined, so the audience/customer knows exactly what to hope for.
  • Whatever you sell, show us people happily engaging with the product.
  • Describe the future of the customer in terms of internal (feelings), external (physical), philosophical (moral/reasons).
  1. Winning power and position (need for status)
    • Offer access (e.g. Starbucks membership)
    • Create scarcity (e.g. limited number of an item)
    • Offer a premium (e.g. Emerald club of car rental company)
    • Offer identity association (e.g. Mercedes, Rolex)
  2. Union that makes the hero whole (need for something external to create completeness)
    • story: resolve a deficiency (e.g. marriage, learn new skill)
    • reduce anxiety (e.g. cleaning stuff, closure of clean home)
    • reduce workload (e.g. software, fishing rod, thing to make you superhuman)
    • more time (fit it all in
  3. Ultimate self-realisation/acceptance (need to reach our potential)
    • the desire for self-acceptance
    • inspiration (e.g. red bull, HBR, under armour)
    • acceptance (e.g. Dove)
    • transcendence (e.g. Tom’s Shoes)
  • Closing the loop can be as simple as showing happy people.
    • E.g. rug shop, just show the rug in a nice living room
    • E.g. camping gear, an adventure to remember

Chapter 11: People Want Your Brand to Participate in Their Transformation

  • Everybody wants to transform.
  • Brands that participate in the identity transformation of their customers create passionate brand evangelists.
  • Heroes are designed to transform.
  • Smart brands define an aspirational identity.
    • and associate the brand with that identity.
    • E.g. knife company, tough and adventurous person (hello trouble)
  • How does your customer want to be described by others?
  • Great brands obsess about the transformation of their customers
    • How do we do that at Queal?
    • Could we learn from pindakaas or other ‘boring’ products?
  • Example: Financial adviser, from: confused and ill-equipped, to: competent and smart
  • Example: Shampoo brand, from: anxious and glum, to: carefree and radiant
  • Do more than help your customers win, let’s help them transform.

Chapter 12: Building a Better Website

  • A great digital presence starts with a clear and effective website.
  • When a customer gets to your website, their “hopes need to be confirmed”, and they need to be convinced we have a solution to their problem.
  • Keep it simple. Like an elevator pitch.
  • A website full of noise can kill potential sales.
  • The 5 basics you need/must have:
    1. An offer above the fold. (e.g. we will make you a pro in the kitchen)
      • customers need to know what’s in it for them right when they read the text
      • E.g. We help you make beautiful websites (Sqaurespace)
      • Promise an aspirational identity
      • Promise to solve a problem
      • State exactly what you do
      • Queal: We take the hassle out of getting a good meal. We make complete meals.!!!
    2. Obvious call to action
      • Order Now (duh)
      • Placement tips: top right! (Highlight shop more!!! and/or put it in button-style, to the right?), and center (instead of left).
      • Eyes move in Z pattern
      • Buttons should look exactly the same!!!
      • If you have a transitional CTA, show it but less prominent
    3. Images of success
      • Smiling, happy people, emotional destination.
    4. A bite-sized breakdown of your revenue streams
      • find an overall umbrella message that unifies your various streams
      • once you have the umbrella, the different product-pages (with their own BrandScripts) can shine there
    5. Very few words
      • People don’t read websites anymore, they scan them.
      • Write in morse-code (brief, punchy, relevant to customers)
      • The fewer words you use, the more likely it is that people will read them
  • Stay on script, everything should be a logical conclusion from the BrandScript